EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Kentucky Wins: With Defense,
Only With Defense,
But With Great Defense


Georgia came to Rupp Arena Saturday, a rag-tag bunch, with several walk-on players and without their leading scorer on the season. Most Kentucky faithful expected a walk in the park, e.g. Kentucky by 20, 25 [Vegas Odd's men], 30, even more. However, Coach Dennis Felton's charges applied tenacious defense and held Kentucky to 60 points and under 40 percent field goal shooting. In addition, Georgia outrebounding Kentucky 37 - 29 and 14 - 9 on the offensive boards. Nevertheless, Kentucky emerged victorious primarily due to its continued intense defense.

Kentucky's defense in 2004/05 is arguably the best ever for a Kentucky team in the last 35 years. Joe B. Hall said as much during an interview on JP at halftime, and data supports this conclusion.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was a below average 0.857 ppp, significantly lower than the 0.923 ppp I predicted. On defense, Kentucky held Georgia to 0.689 ppp, also significantly lower than the 0.769 ppp I predicted. 

Based on Season performance of both teams, as well as their schedule strength for this year, I predicted a 12 point Kentucky Win, 73 - 61.

During the Georgia game, Kentucky had a total of 72 possessions, nine of which resulted from offensive rebounds. Kentucky's 9 second chance possessions produced an efficient 14 second chance points. Kentucky's offensive efficiency for second chance possessions was 1.556 ppp, significantly higher than Kentucky's first chance efficiency of 0.730 ppp. Georgia had a total of 74 possessions for the game, 14 of which were second chance possessions. Georgia's second chance offensive efficiency was 0.643 ppp, which is slightly lower than their first chance efficiency of 0.689 ppp.

Kentucky returns to the road on February 15, 2005 for a game at South Carolina. 

Let's compare the teams as of February 13, 2005

                     UK               USC

Win-Loss Record         19 - 2          13 - 8
Offensive Efficiency    0.909     0.892 Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.746    0.804 ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.163      0.088  ppp
RPI Ranking, 1/10/04   11         77
RPI SOS, 1/10/04       0.5449     0 .5427

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction based on data available 2/12/05 at 6 pm.  I will update this prediction from time to time between now and game time as indicated by daily changes in the current Strength of Schedule factor.

             UK  69   South Carolina   64
                 See details Below

    


Kentucky
USC
Points
69
64
FGM
25
24
FGA
44.3%
56
54
44.5%
3PTM
6
6
3PTA
32.1%
19
18
31.3%
FTM
13
11
FTA
65.8%
20
17
63.3%
TO
5.77
14
16
4.86
REB
36
34
Possessions
80
79
PPP
0.863
0.818

Click Here To Return to the Data

 

Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved