EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Kentucky's Struggling Offense Is AWOL In 12 Point Loss At South Carolina

For the first time in 20 games, spanning 1 year and 1 day, Kentucky tasted defeat at the hands of an SEC opponent.  The last SEC defeat was February 14, 2004 to Georgia, and tonight Kentucky lost to South Carolina 73 - 61.  The story of this game was inept offense marked by very poor shooting and 21 turnovers. In addition, South Carolina outrebounded Kentucky 37 - 35.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was a pitiful 0.718 ppp, a full 0.2 ppp below its season average, and well below the 0.863 ppp I predicted. On defense, Kentucky was also uncharacteristically weak, allowing South Carolina 0.859 ppp, which is significantly higher than the 0.818 ppp I predicted. 

Based on Season performance of both teams, as well as their schedule strength for this year, I predicted a 5 point Kentucky Win, 69 - 64.

During the South Carolina game, Kentucky had a total of 86 possessions, thirteen of which resulted from offensive rebounds. Kentucky's 13 second chance possessions produced an efficient 9 second chance points. Kentucky's offensive efficiency for second chance possessions was 0.692 ppp, slightly lower than Kentucky's first chance efficiency of 0.712 ppp. South Carolina also had a total of 86 possessions for the game, 12 of which were second chance possessions, producing 13 second chance points. USC's second chance offensive efficiency was 1.083 ppp, which is significantly higher than their first chance efficiency of 0.811 ppp.

Kentucky returns to Rupp Arena on February 19, 2005 for a game against Mississippi State. 

Let's compare the teams as of February 15, 2005

                       UK            Mississippi State

Win-Loss Record         19 - 3          18 - 6
Offensive Efficiency    0.901           0.884    Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.754          0.802     ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.147          0.082     ppp
RPI Ranking, 1/10/04   11                26
RPI SOS, 1/10/04       0.5449        0 .5415

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction based on data available 2/12/05 at 6 pm.  I will update this prediction from time to time between now and game time as indicated by daily changes in the current Strength of Schedule factor.

             UK  69   Mississippi State 67
                 See details Below

    

		Kentucky	Miss St.
Points		69	67
FGM		25	24
FGA	43.0%	59	55	43.3%
3PTM		7	6
3PTA	31.9%	20	18	31.7%
FTM		12	13
FTA	65.8%	18	20	66.6%
TO	6.09	13	17	4.89
REB		36	37
Possessions		81	82
PPP		0.850	0.818

    

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Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved