EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Kentucky Coasts by William & Mary

After taking on and defeating two traditional rivals over the last 10 days, Kentucky returned to the Arena floor tonight for another of its pre-SEC cup cakes.   It devoured the treat by the middle of the first half, and all that remained was the final spread.   If you bet that Kentucky would beat the 30 1/2 point line, you won.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was 0.979 ppp, significantly higher than I predicted.   On defense, Kentucky allowed 0.573 ppp, significantly better than predicted. 

Based on this season's NCAA RPI Strength of Schedule and season performance, I predicted a 15 point Kentucky margin, 78-63. 

During the William & Mary game, Kentucky had a total of 94 possessions, twenty-one of which resulted from offensive rebounds.  The average offensive efficiency for the first chance possessions for the game was 1.041 points per possession [ppp] while the average efficiency for the 21 second chance possessions was 0.762 ppp.  William & Mary was more efficient on its 8 second chance possessions [0.750 ppp] than its 74 first chance possessions [0.554 ppp]. 

Campbell Is Next! 

Let's compare the teams as of December 28, 2004.

                   UK         Campbell

Win-Loss Record         8-1             3-3
Offensive Efficiency    0.918       0.765  Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.715       1.000  ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.193       -0.235  ppp
RPI Ranking, 12/28/04   28           259
RPI SOS, 12/28/04      0.5140     0 .4417

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction:

             UK  81  Campbell  56
                 See details Below

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Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
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