EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Campbell Wins Opening Tip For Moral Victory of Kentucky

Kentucky's pre-season diet of cupcakes ended tonight against Campbell.  Campbell won the opening tip of the game, and Kentucky didn't look back, building a 45-11 half time lead, and winning the game 82 - 50.  Now, serious basketball will be the cats' steady diet.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was 0.919 ppp, significantly lower than the 1.000 ppp I predicted.   On defense, Kentucky allowed 0.562 ppp, significantly better than the 0.696 ppp I predicted. 

Based on this season's NCAA RPI Strength of Schedule and season performance, I predicted a 26 point Kentucky margin, 82 - 56. 

During the Campbell game, Kentucky had a total of 90 possessions, fourteen of which resulted from offensive rebounds.  The average offensive efficiency for the first chance possessions for the game was 0.974 ppp while the average efficiency for the 14 second chance possessions was 0.539 ppp.  Campbell was more efficient on its 13 second chance possessions [0.692 ppp] than its 76 first chance possessions [0.571 ppp]. 

Kentucky opens SEC play next Wednesday in Rupp Arena against a very good South Carolina team. 

Let's compare the teams as of January 2, 2005

                   UK         South Carolina

Win-Loss Record         9 - 1             8 - 3
Offensive Efficiency    0.926       0.856  Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.695       0.735  ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.231       0.121   ppp
RPI Ranking, 12/28/04   25          39
RPI SOS, 12/28/04      0.5062     0 .5696

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction:  While the analysis produces a dead heat, too close to call, prediction, I believe that Kentucky will benefit from its home court, and win by 1 or 2 points at the end.

             UK  67  South Carolina  66
                 See details Below

    
Kentucky
USC
Points
67
66
FGM
24
24
FGA
41.1%
58
55
44.0%
3PTM
6
6
3PTA
29.2%
19
18
32.5%
FTM
13
11
FTA
67.6%
19
18
61.6%
TO
5.51
15
18
4.59
REB
38
36
Possessions
83
82
PPP
0.803
0.797

 

Last year when these teams met in Rupp Arena, Kentucky escaped with a 1 point victory.  See the Box Score below.  Issues of significant importance include the close score.  Kentucky hit a very high free throw percentage last year, when compared to this season's average, while USC's free throw shootingf last year was below their average.  USC's 3-point shooting last season was about average, but Kentucky only hit 19% of their 3-point attemps.  Kentucky outrebounded USC last year by 15, but this year should keep this issue under control.  Kentucky committed more turnovers that USC, yet this year's Kentucky team is forcing many more turnovers than they commit.

 

    
Kentucky
USC
Pts
65
64
FGA
50.0%
42
39
51.3%
FGM
41.4%
21
20
46.4%
3PT A
18.8%
16
17
35.3%
3PT M
3
6
FTA
82.4%
17
11
54.5%
FTM
14
6
TO
12
10
REB OFF
8
16
8
REB DEF
25
18
REB TOT
41
26
Poss/Stats
78
71
Poss, Tracking
77
71

 

Click Here To Return to the Data

 

Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved