EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
Kentucky Wins Easily at Mississippi State
Game Preview: NO GAME PREVIEW DUE TO TRAVEL COMMITMENTS
The First Half: NO FIRST HALF ANALYSIS DUE TO TRAVEL COMMITMENTS
Kentucky started fast and finished strong in the first half for a 38-29 lead.
Of UK's 39 first half possessions, 7 came by virtue of its offensive rebounding that produced 5 second chance points. MSU earned 4 bonus possessions created by its offensive rebounding that produced 4-second chance points. UK had an above average offensive efficiency of 1.031 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and a weak 0.714 ppp for its 7-second chance possessions. MSU had a 0.806 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 4-second chance possessions.
MSU made only 6 of its 9 free throw attempts [66.7%] while UK converted 4 of its 5 attempts from the line [80.0%]. UK out rebounded MSU in the first half, 17-15, and UK won the battle of the offensive boards, 7-4. The field goal shooting abandoned UK today in the first half from inside the arc as UK was only 5-15 [33.3%], but from beyond the arc, UK was a very strong 8-18 [44.4%]. MSU shot the ball better than UK from inside the arc, hitting 7 for 15 [46.7%] but MSU was only 3-11 from beyond the arc [27.3%]. The game pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for UK and 70 possessions for MSU .
Today: the first team to score its 72 nd point will win this game. UK needs to score 34 more points in the second half to reach this level before MSU can score 43 points in this race to 72 points. Kentucky scored its 72 nd point of the game with about 4 minutes to play on 3-point jump shot to move ahead 74-62. UK finished the game and held on to win by 15 points, 81-66.
The Second Half:
For the entire game, Kentucky and MSU each grabbed 34 total rebounds and 12 offensive rebounds. MSU and UK both grabbed a fair 35.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds. UK scored 81 points on its 76 possessions [1.066 ppp] while MSU scored its 66 points using a total of 75 possessions [0.880 ppp]. Kentucky committed 9 turnovers to MSU 's 11 for the game.
Kentucky had 64 first chance possessions in which they scored 70 points, 1.094 ppp while they scored 11 points on their 12-second chance possessions, 0.917 ppp. MSU had 63 first chance possessions on which they scored 51 points, 0.810 ppp while they scored 15 second chance points on their 12 second chance possessions, 1.250 ppp.
Tonight UK shot the ball well from the field for the game. From the field, UK shot 47.2% [17-36] inside the arc, and an outstanding 13-25 from beyond the arc [52.0%] for a combined shooting percentage of 49.2%. The Free throw shooting was poor in terms of percentage and the number of opportunities was below average, 8-13 [61.5%]. MSU did not shoot as well from the field today. From inside the arc, MSU hit 46.9% [15-32] and from long range, Arkansas hit a33.3% [7-21]. Arkansas 's free throw shooting, 15-23 [65.2%] was also weak, but better than UK 's, 8-13 [61.5%]. Kentucky committed one turnover for every 8.4 possessions while forcing a turnover in every 6.8 possessions. Last year, in comparison, these turnover rates were 6.2 and 4.6 respectively for the season.
I predicted a Kentucky victory over MSU today, 71-64. The predicted v. actual offensive efficiencies were 0.808 and 1.066 ppp respectively, and the predicted v. actual defensive efficiencies were 0.810 and 0.880 ppp respectively.
Copyright 2006 Richard Cheeks