2002-03 THROUGH 2005-06 [3/11/06]

The above graph illustrates the game to game running averages and 5-Game running averages for UK 's offensive and defensive efficiencies during the 2005-06 Basketball Season.   The horizontal axis is the game number, including the two exhibition games, and the vertical axis is Efficiency, Points Per Possession [ ppp ].   The Dark Blue Series is the game to game running average offensive efficiency and the yellow series is the 5-Game running average for Offensive Efficiency.   As these two lines show, the 5-Game and Game to Game Offensive Efficiencies were tracking together though about game 13 [Iona] and since that time, the 5-Game average has been dipping substantially below the running average curve.   This occurs when the current level of offensive efficiency is well below the overall season average [An Offensive Slump for example].   It is important to note that the Yellow series has finally bottomed out after game # 18 [ Alabama ] and has started to climb toward the Season Average curve again.   If this trend continues, a new trend of better than average offensive performance will be established , possibly following the Auburn Game.


On the defensive side of the ledger ,   the Average Defensive Efficiency [Pink Series] has been climbing steadily all season long, and continues to climb as of the USC game.   This continuous upward trend is verified by the 5-Game Defensive Efficiency series [light blue] has been consistently above the Season Average series, and the separation between the current season average defensive efficiency and the defensive efficiency for the last 5 games continues to widen.   Unlike the apparent reversal in the downward trend offensively, there is no indication of a reversal of the defensive deterioration at this time.


The gap between the season offensive and defensive efficiencies is the Net Game Efficiency.   At present, that gap stands at about 0.047 ppp .   This is the key statistical parameter because the winning percentage is a function of the Net Game Efficiency, as illustrated in a previous posting.


Let's examine for comparative purposes similar data for recent seasons.




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Copyright 2006 Richard Cheeks
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