Pitino v Smith
Net Game Efficiency



In 1989, the season prior to Pitino's arrival, UK 13-19 with a year ending Net Game Efficiency of -0.025 points per possession.   Pitino's teams improved in this important measure every year except his 5 th year [ 1994] which slipped from 0.165 ppp in 1993 to 0.138 ppp in 1994.   Pitino's teams continued to improve, increasing their competitiveness each year culminating in back to back trips to Championship Monday with one championship to claim.


In 1997, the season prior to Smith's arrival, UK was 35-5 with a year ending Net Game Efficiency of 0.201 points per possessions.   Smith's teams immediately showed decline, and then a pattern emerges.   However, unlike Pitino which showed sustained improvement, year to year, Smith's teams show a pattern of up then down.   Note that after the local low mark [2000 @ 0.058] the alternating cycles showed improvement, with each successive alternating year peaks and valleys were better than the prior pair.   That trend persisted for 2 ½ cycles, until this season.   This year is likely to end with a Net Game Efficiency for the year less than Tubby's prior low water mark [0.058] possibly as low as 0.044 ppp .


The Net Game Efficiency is an important parameter because the win-lose percentage is a function of the Net Game Efficiency. The Least Squares line shown on this data shows a non-linear relationship between the UK data for 1972 through 2006, inclusively. This trend line is valid generally for Net Game Efficiencies of 0.200 ppp to about -0.050 ppp . 



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Copyright 2005 Richard Cheeks
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