EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
Kentucky Embarrassed by Kansas
Just like two heavyweight prize fighters, both of these teams answered the opening bell feeling out the opponent, but it didn't take long for Kansas to figure out that while they may not be heavyweight, and only middle weight, Kentucky is definitely light weight. Once Kansas understood this disparity in talent, they began to pummel Kentucky , hitting them hard, hitting them often, and hitting them relentlessly. Kentucky 's defense has failed, and it has found no room to deliver any counter punches.
Kansas raced out to a huge 41-19 halftime lead winning all five of the game segments by 8, 4, 4, 4, and 2. The two point segmental margin occurred in the first, feel out the opponent segment, 6-4. UK scored its 19 points on 40 possessions [0.475 ppp] and Kansas scoring its 41 points on only 43 possessions, 0.953 points per possession for the half.
Of UK's 41 first half possessions, 9 came by virtue of its offensive rebounding that produced 8 second chance points. Kansas earned 9 bonus possessions created by its offensive rebounding that produced 9 second chance points. UK had a pitiful, almost unbeliebably low offensive efficiency of 0.344 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and an good 0.889 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. Kansas had a 0.954 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.
The free throw shooting in the first half was good for UK and for Kansas . UK 7-10 [70.0%] while Kansas made 11 of 16 attempts [68.8%]. Kansas out rebounded UK 25-21 for the half. The field goal shooting, was also weak for Kentucky tonight from inside the arc, 30.0% [6-20] than for Kansas , 12-23 [52.2%]. Outside the arc, Kentucky shot did not make a shot, 0-8 [0.0%] while Kansas was only 2-9 [22.2%] from beyond the arc. The pace of this game was equivalent to about 82 possessions for the game.
MAGIC NUMBER Today: the first team to score its 72 nd point will win this game. UK needs an astounding 53 more points in the second half to reach this level before Kansas can score a modest 31 points. Kansas scored its 72 nd point of the game on a 3 pointer at the 1:00 mark, taking the lead to 73-44, and Kansas played out the last minute for a 73-46 win.
The second half started exactly the same way the first half was played, KU expanded its 22 first half lead to 28, and with 11 ½ minutes to play, the lead remained 28, 58-30. From that point, both teams went through the motions to bring the misery to an end, with UK closing the gap only 1 point for the final 27 point, 73-46 score.
UK lost the battle of the boards during the game, losing on total rebounds by 36-38. UK won the battle of the offensive boards, 20-13. However, this offensive rebounding margin is deceptive because large disparity in missed shots. Kansas grabbed nearly 42% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UK grabbed a season average 37% of its misses. UK scored 46 points on its 83 possessions [0.561 ppp] while Kansas scored its 73 points using a total of 77 possessions [0.948 ppp]. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers to Kansas ' 12 for the game.
But for second chance possessions, this game would have been uglier than it is. Kentucky had 63 first chance possessions in which they scored 21 points, 0.333 ppp while they scored 25 points on their 20 second chance possessions, an outstanding 1.250 ppp. Kansas had 64 first chance possessions on which they scored 57 points, 0.891 ppp while they scored 16 second chance points on their 13 second chance possessions, 1.231 ppp.
Tonight UK shot the ball poorly in every respect of the game. From the field, UK shot 32.4% [12-37] inside the arc, and a pitiful 3-25 from beyond the arc [12.0%] for a combined shooting percentage of 24.2%. The Free throw shooting was only 13-21 [61.9%]. Kansas shot better than most UK opponents inside the arc, but struggled from beyond the arc. Kansas was 24-39 [61.5%] from long range, while the Jayhawks only hit 4-17 [23.5%] from beyond the arc. From the line; however, Kansas was 13-19 from the [68.4%]. Kentucky committed one turnover for every 7.6 possessions while forcing a turnover in every 6.4 possessions. Last year, in comparison, these turnover rates were 6.2 and 4.6 respectively for the season.
I predicted a Kansas win over Kentucky today, 67-66. The predicted v. actual offensive efficiencies were 0.809 and 0.554 ppp respectively, and the predicted v. actual defensive efficiencies were 0.824 and 0.948 ppp respectively.
Copyright 2005 Richard Cheeks