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PRESENTATION FORMATS

Kentucky Wins the SEC Regular Season Championship For 43rd Time


Kentucky's Rupp Arena faithful gave Seniors Hays and Carrier the traditional Kentucky "Thank You" for the four years of service to the Greatest College Basketball Program of all time.  Tennessee held tough for about 35 minutes, and failed to convert on several opportunities to break a 55 - 55 tie before Chuck Hays send a message loud and clear that His Senior Night would not be tarnished by a rare defeat.  Hays scored 13 of Kentucky's next 16 points as Kentucky outscored Tennessee 18 to 6 over the last 5 minutes.

Kentucky was outrebounded by Tennessee today, continuing the Cats lackluster board work of the last 3 to 4 weeks.  

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was an impressive 1.000 ppp, well above their season average and Kentucky this entire season, and significantly above the 0.901 ppp I predicted against the Tennessee defense.  Kentucky's defense was equally impressive holding Tennessee to 0.735 ppp, substantially below the 0.840 ppp I predicted. 

Based on Season performance of both teams, as well as their schedule strength for this year, I predicted an 1point Kentucky Win, 72 - 66.

During the Tennessee game, Kentucky had a total of 73 possessions, six of which resulted from offensive rebounds.  Kentucky's 6 second chance possessions produced 4 second chance points. Kentucky's offensive efficiency for second chance possessions was 0.667 ppp, significantly lower than Kentucky's first chance efficiency of 1.030 ppp.  Tennessee had a total of 83 possessions for the game, 13 of which were second chance possessions, producing 7 second chance points. Tennessee's second chance offensive efficiency was 0.538 ppp, which is significantly lower than their first chance efficiency of 0.771 ppp.

Kentucky finishes its regular season and SEC schedule on Sunday afternoon against Florida in Gainesville.   

Let's compare the teams as of March 2, 2005

                       UK            Florida

Win-Loss Record         23 - 3          19 - 7
Offensive Efficiency    0.927           0.991  Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.766         0.814     ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.161          0.177     ppp
RPI Ranking, 3/2/05     11               33
RPI SOS, 1/10/04       0.5486        0 .5408

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction based on data available 3/5/05 at 1 pm.  I will update this prediction from time to time between now and game time as indicated by daily changes in the current Strength of Schedule factor.

             UK  69   Florida 70
                 See details Below

         
 
Kentucky
Florida
Points
69
70
FGM
25
25
FGA
44.6%
56
54
46.1%
3PTM
6
7
3PTA
32.3%
19
20
35.5%
FTM
13
13
FTA
62.8%
21
20
65.4%
TO
5.80
14
16
4.99
REB
35
35
Possessions
80
80
PPP
0.859
0.873
           

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Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved