EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Kentucky Takes Its Rupp Game
On The Road To Tennessee

Kentucky continued a critical portion of its SEC schedule tonight with the third road victory of this young season to remain unbeaten in the SEC.  This is the third road game in the last four games, and the first of three straight road games.  Tonight, the wildcats put again took care of business early and removed any serious thought of an upset.  While Tennessee made a modest run at the Cats early in the second half, cutting the 11 point half time lead to 8 points at 49 - 41.  However, the Cats responded to the challenge and outscored Tennessee 40 - 17 down the stretch, posting an impressive 84 - 62 win. 

Kentucky  dominated Tennessee on the boards tonight, out rebounding the Vols 41 - 29, 21 - 10 on offensive rebounds, which provided Kentucky 11 bonus possessions for the game. 

Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was an impressive 0.966 ppp, higher than the 0.899 ppp I predicted.   On defense, Kentucky held Tennessee to 0.827 ppp, almost identical to the 0.823 ppp I predicted. 

Based on this season's NCAA RPI Strength of Schedule and season performance, I predicted a nine point Kentucky margin, 72- 63. 

During the Tennessee game, Kentucky had a total of 87 possessions, twenty-one of which resulted from offensive rebounds.  Kentucky's 21 second chance possessions produced 23 second chance points.  Kentucky's offensive efficiency for second chance possessions was 1.035 ppp, significantly higher than Kentucky's first chance efficiency of 0.924 ppp.  Tennessee had a total of 76 possessions for the game, 10 of which were second chance possessions.  LSU's second chance offensive efficiency was 0.900  ppp, which is greater than their first chance efficiency of 0.815 ppp.

Kentucky continues SEC conference play next Saturday at Arkansas.

Let's compare the teams as of January 25, 2005

        UK               Arkansas

Win-Loss Record         15 - 2             14 - 5
Offensive Efficiency    0.910      0.933 Points per Poss
Defensive Efficiency    0.733     0.746 ppp
Net Game Efficiency   0.177      0.187  ppp
RPI Ranking, 1/10/04   16         61
RPI SOS, 1/10/04       0.5612     0 .5225

Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction based on data available 1/25/05 at 9 pm.  I will update this prediction from time to time between now and game time as indicated by daily changes in the current Strength of Schedule factor.

             UK  70  LSU   67
                 See details Below

    
Kentucky
ARKANSAS
Points
70
67
FGM
25
24
FGA
42.5%
59
55
43.3%
3PTM
6
6
3PTA
31.1%
19
18
35.3%
FTM
15
12
FTA
65.6%
22
19
64.3%
TO
5.38
16
17
4.85
REB
37
35
Possessions
85
82
PPP
0.822
0.816

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Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved