EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
Kentucky Takes Its Rupp Game
Kentucky continued a critical portion of its SEC schedule tonight with the third road victory of this young season to remain unbeaten in the SEC. This is the third road game in the last four games, and the first of three straight road games. Tonight, the wildcats put again took care of business early and removed any serious thought of an upset. While Tennessee made a modest run at the Cats early in the second half, cutting the 11 point half time lead to 8 points at 49 - 41. However, the Cats responded to the challenge and outscored Tennessee 40 - 17 down the stretch, posting an impressive 84 - 62 win.
Kentucky dominated Tennessee on the boards tonight, out rebounding the Vols 41 - 29, 21 - 10 on offensive rebounds, which provided Kentucky 11 bonus possessions for the game.
Kentucky's offensive efficiency for the game was an impressive 0.966 ppp, higher than the 0.899 ppp I predicted. On defense, Kentucky held Tennessee to 0.827 ppp, almost identical to the 0.823 ppp I predicted.
Based on this season's NCAA RPI Strength of Schedule and season performance, I predicted a nine point Kentucky margin, 72- 63.
During the Tennessee game, Kentucky had a total of 87 possessions, twenty-one of which resulted from offensive rebounds. Kentucky's 21 second chance possessions produced 23 second chance points. Kentucky's offensive efficiency for second chance possessions was 1.035 ppp, significantly higher than Kentucky's first chance efficiency of 0.924 ppp. Tennessee had a total of 76 possessions for the game, 10 of which were second chance possessions. LSU's second chance offensive efficiency was 0.900 ppp, which is greater than their first chance efficiency of 0.815 ppp.
Kentucky continues SEC conference play next Saturday at Arkansas.
Let's compare the teams as of January 25, 2005
Win-Loss Record 15 - 2 14 - 5
Based on each team's early performance with an adjustment for strength of schedule, I would make the following prediction based on data available 1/25/05 at 9 pm. I will update this prediction from time to time between now and game time as indicated by daily changes in the current Strength of Schedule factor.
UK 70 LSU 67