EXPLANATION OF DATA AND
PRESENTATION FORMATS

Declining Game Pace

Have you ever wondered why Tubbyball gets slower the longer he stays and the better entrenched he becomes?

Do you wonder whether we have seen the slowest pace or whether the pace will be 10 percent lower in another 5 years?

Will the arrival of new freshmen phenoms produce a new upward trend on the game pace?

Inquiring minds want to know!

Prior to the 2005 season, Tubby said he intended to play a faster pace with this group.  Let's look at the data after the first 10 games.  In the last 4 seasons, Tubby's teams have averaged

Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies
Points per Possession, ppp
TOTALS, ALL GAMES
Points
Per Game
Poss.
Per Game
Offensive
Total
Kentucky
Opponents
Kentucky
Opponents
Rebound
Possesions
Margin/Game
Per Game
2005
77.1
59.5
84.6
82.9
1.7
167.5
2004
75.5
64.3
81.1
79.5
1.6
160.6
2003
77.4
65.1
82.7
80.5
2.2
163.2
2002
78.1
69.0
87.8
85.6
2.2
173.4
2001
80.7
71.3
86.9
87.6
(0.6)
174.5
2000
70.0
63.4
83.6
81.9
1.7
165.4
1996
92.3
69.8
97.1
93.6
3.5
190.7
Average
79.0
67.1
86.5
84.8
1.7
171.3

Considering that the Pitino teams at Kentucky averaged mid 90s possessions per game, and Tubby's teams have averaged 85 possessions per game (1998 through the present), this team is slightly below Tubby's average pace.  Furthermore, the data for the 2005 season suggests that Tubby allowed greater freedom on the floor, at least until after the UNC game which saw Kentucky's poorest showing of the season, and the highest number of possessions.  Since the UNC game, Tubby's team has steadily found its legs under a progressively slower pace.  I expect this team to average about 75 possessions per game for the SEC and post season play.  This would be the slowest paced team in recent memory.

 

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Copyright 2004 Richard Cheeks
All Rights Reserved